Can You Bet On The Us Presidential Election
Wait, you can bet on politics?
- Can You Bet On The Presidential Election In The Us
- Can I Still Bet On The Us Presidential Election
- Can You Bet On The Us Presidential Election Polls
- Place A Bet On Election
- Betting On The 2020 Election
Yes, you can! In fact, since 2016, political betting has been one of the fastest-growing categories of the online betting industry and political betting odds are popping up all over. For Americans or anyone living in the USA, offshore betting is the only lawful option, as it is illegal for brick and mortar sportsbooks to offer any sort of politics betting. In Europe, however, this form of wagering is a well-established staple of their legalized betting culture.
The Election has dominated the news in the United States with Trump and Biden going at each other through the media. This will be the most wagered on Election in United States history. If you’re a Canadian and you’d like to bet on who will become the next President of the United States here’s a step by step guide to how to get started. You can bet on all the major sports, as well as some niche ones, and there’s a separate section for political betting, including the US presidential election. Sign up today and grab a 100% matched deposit bonus on your first deposit up to $200.
Regardless, top-notch online political betting sites are available to everyone, no matter where you live. What’s most important is finding one that’s vetted, safe to use, and can be relied upon to provide handicappers with the best odds and markets consistently.
Top Sites for Betting on Politics
- Bovada – One of the most widely recognized names in online wagers, they frequently offer the best political betting odds.
- MyBookie – This site posts a broad range of creative political lines, including a selection of fun Donald Trump prop bets.
- BetOnline – As a long-time industry leader in online bookmaking, it has lots of great political betting markets.
- Betway – This is a UK-based bookmaker that holds licenses throughout Europe and offers a large selection of US and European political betting opportunities.
Our mission is to introduce new players to the world’s top political betting websites; however, the qualities that make an option the “best” for one player may not be the same for another. It’s all relatively subjective once you get past the fundamental attributes like safety, legitimacy, and ease of use. You can find out more about this further down on the page but first, lets jump into to different political betting options on the market.
Political Betting Around the World
Everything from the online sportsbooks available in your region, to the political betting events in which you’re likely interested, will probably depend on your location or country of origin. In the United States, it’s illegal for licensed providers—brick and mortar and web-based bookmakers alike—to take odds on politics. This law was put into place to prevent the American electoral system from corruption.
However, it’s perfectly legal for US citizens to utilize offshore betting sites; they just won’t benefit from any government regulations, which makes finding trustworthy operators particularly crucial for Americans. The best political bookmakers accepting Americans will often cover foreign elections as well, but not as thoroughly as what’s going on in the United States.
In Europe, political betting is commonplace and easily accessible, both at land-based establishments and on the internet. For a player in the UK, using a licensed gaming website is a requirement, which gives the player increased protections and less reason to fret about the legitimacy of a site operator. Fortunately, European oddsmakers do a superb job at covering US political events in addition to their local lines.
Betting US Politics
No matter the country in which you live, United States political betting markets are the most popular on the internet. All of the top political betting sites offer a plenty of lines and odds, dealing with the US presidential elections, party primaries, congressional races, and a wealth of wagers relating specifically to President Donald Trump.
Political betting’s rapid growth is largely attributed to the 2016 election, in which Trump scored a shocking upset win over Hillary Clinton. Before that race, wagering on politics didn’t offer much value, because the polls were relatively accurate, and so the lines and odds shifted in response to the latest polling data.
2016 changed everything because it proved that:
- The pollsters and media were no longer reliable sources
- That major upsets were possible, which means there’s positive value out there for handicappers.
Today, you can bet on each individual state’s primary or caucus on the road to the two parties’ national conventions, the eventual nominees, how many times Donald Trump will tweet in a given day, whether he will be removed from office, and so much more!
Betting UK Politics
As we previously mentioned, betting on politics has been a normal fixture of UK odds boards for years. Similar to Trump’s victory in 2016, handicappers in England were treated to a massive upset of their own with the passing of “Brexit.” The substantial payouts and surprising result had the same impact across the pond, creating newfound interest in betting on politics.
Online sportsbooks in the UK treat residents to all sorts of creative lines, covering everything from the London mayoral election, to the next leaders of each major party, to the next general election. Bookies include options to bet on either the next winning party or next Prime Minister in the generals.
Betting French Politics
Many online political betting sites cover French elections and events as well. France’s presidential election takes place every five years, with the next race taking place in 2022. The current president is Emmanuel Macron, whose main opponent in two years will be Marine Le Pen of the National Rally party. Many European oddsmakers are already taking action on the electoral contest.
It’s also worth noting that France uses a two-round presidential election system, providing multiple opportunities on which to wager on the same race.
The Basics of Political Betting
As you know, the category of “political betting” covers a broad range of unique wager types and events. The most common are futures bets for presidential elections.
Sportsbooks will post political betting odds for the incumbent and a variety of potential nominees for the opposing party and set lines for them all. You pick who you believe will become the next president, and the bet is resolved on election night. But that’s only a small percentage of what the best political betting sites offer – check out the different types of wagers below.
Types of Political Bets
Moneyline
A moneyline bet deals with two possible outcomes; for example, “Which party will win the 2020 presidential election? Republicans or Democrats?” Often, despite having two possible options, the likelihood of either of them happening isn’t an equal 50/50 split.
So, moneyline odds set specific payouts for both sides. The “favorite” or result more likely to happen is expressed as a negative number, like –150. That means you must bet $150 on that side to win $100. The underdog has positive moneyline odds, such as +125. For every $100 you stake, you’ll earn $125.
Donald Trump -125
Bernie Sanders +105
Futures
Most political bets fall into the “futures” category. These are merely wagers that will be decided on a specific date in the future. They’ll often include a field of participants from which the bettor may choose. The 2020 presidential election (example displayed below) is considered a futures bet, for which you can pick Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and several others.
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
| Politician | Betting Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -135 |
| Donald Trump | +105 |
| Mike Pence | +10000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +10000 |
| Michelle Obama | +10000 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +15000 |
| Nikki Haley | +25000 |
| Mark Cuban | +50000 |
| Kanye West | +50000 |
Props
The “proposition” label covers a wide variety of bets. Any odds dealing with political outcomes beyond the usual electoral contests are considered a prop. For example, some online sportsbooks allow you to wager on current events like, “Will Donald Trump complete his first term in office as President of the US?” All of the political betting odds and lines dealing with Trump’s tweets and foreign policy decisions fit under the “prop bet” title as well.
Totals (Over-Unders)
Totals bets are when the oddsmakers set a line, dealing with how many times a specific occurrence will take place.
Betting Presidential and General Elections
The most popular way to bet politics is by placing a few dollars on whichever candidate you predict will win an upcoming election. Since 2016, interest in the United States general election has skyrocketed around the globe.
If a long-shot reality TV host like Donald Trump could find his way into the White House, in the future, anything could happen! Expectations are that America’s 2020 presidential election will attract the most action globally of any political betting market in history.
The UK’s general elections to decide their Prime Minister is probably the second-most-significant event for wagering on politics. In 2019, Boris Johnson was the favorite when he defeated the Labour Party’s, Jeremy Corbin. Some of the more prominent European sportsbooks also cover elections in Ireland, France, and throughout the EU.
Party Primaries
While the general election in US politics is the “championship game,” the party primaries are akin to the regular season. Heading into 2020, Donald Trump is the incumbent on the Republican side, without a significant primary challenger. However, the Democrats have a very competitive race for the party’s nomination on their side of the aisle, with four or five viable candidates.
Not only can you wager on the eventual DNC nominee, but the best online political betting sites are also posting lines on each individual state. For example, the Iowa caucuses were the first statewide contest for pledged delegates. Pete Buttigieg ultimately won the most delegates and was thus awarded the victory as a slight underdog to Bernie Sanders.
The primaries offer the most valuable betting odds to handicappers due to the high variance in results and the volume of contests. They present 50 unique political wagering opportunities in the lead-up to the presidential elections. In years without an incumbent, that means 100 chances to bet on politics.
Congressional Elections
In the United States, the president serves a four-year term. Senators serve six-year terms, and members of the House of Representatives are given two-year terms, so there are significant electoral contests on which to wager every two years, minimum. Midterm elections are a crucial opportunity for political bettors, as they offer dozens of additional high-variance betting markets from which to profit.
Beyond the individual Senate and House races, the makeup of the two chambers of Congress will greatly influence other political odds. For example, if you had bet that Trump would be impeached and removed from office during his first term, you were closely following the 2018 midterms.
When enough House seats were flipped to Democrat to give them the majority, it was nearly guaranteed that the sitting president would eventually be impeached. However, they weren’t able to win a majority in the Senate, which is the chamber responsible for holding the impeachment trial and acting as jurors. As a result, Donald Trump was impeached but acquitted.
Betting on Current Events
Thankfully, the growth of betting on politics odds has encouraged online sportsbooks to post new lines in the periods between elections. Oddsmakers have been known to set political odds on almost anything.
Sometimes, you can bet on whether or not a specific piece of legislation will pass. In other cases, you may see lines and odds on the next Supreme Court Justice appointed or how the United States will respond to recent foreign policy situations.
What’s important is that the top political betting sites keep handicappers that like to wager on politics busy during downtime.
Donald Trump Prop Bets
Nobody is more singularly responsible for the explosion of betting on politics than Donald Trump. Hate him or love him, he’s been the focus of everyone’s attention since his historic 2016 campaign that culminated with a monumental upset over Hillary Clinton at roughly 4-1 odds.
Since the current president is continually the most talked about man in America, the top online sportsbooks usually post an entire slate of Donald Trump propositions. This is where you’ll see the over/unders on his Twitter activities, odds on whether he’ll meet with different world leaders like Russia’s Putin or China’s Xi, and betting lines about impeachment.
Criteria for the Best Political Betting Sites
At TheSportsGeek, our team of internet gaming experts is continually reviewing new political betting sites to ensure our lists are always stocked with the best names in the business. We can’t promise that every recommendation will fit your unique preferences, but we can guarantee that any online sportsbook on our pages is safe, offers a variety of politics betting markets, and accepts a range of banking options.
That way, even if you decide a different online sportsbook might be a better fit, it won’t be because you were scammed or treated unfairly. Our reviewers make sure to protect our readers from fraudulent operators, so you can focus on the specific website details or, better yet, winning your election bets. Learn more about how we review and rank these websites by clicking on any of the criteria below.
Unlike sports betting, political events don’t come around as often. Most major elections around the world take place in four- or five-year cycles. That’s why the best political betting sites get creative with odds, covering a wide variety of situations and outcomes beyond the most prominent electoral contests.For example, some websites set weekly proposition political odds dealing explicitly with Donald Trump. Here is an example of a Donald Trump prop bet:
You can wager on his volume of tweets, which renowned international terrorist he’ll capture or kill next, whether he’ll declare war, be impeached, and so much more. The more options they provide to handicappers, the better.
Betting on politics should be a year-round activity, just like handicapping sports. The only way to accomplish this is to find online oddsmakers known to post an extensive selection of political betting odds.
The importance of variety extends beyond the political gambling markets to a website's banking options as well. These days, there are lots of different ways to move money in and out of your online gaming account. Finding the best method for you depends on your location, regional regulations, and personal preferences.
For example, in the United States, banks are required by federal law to block transactions between their account holders’ checking accounts and known gaming operations. While it’s not illegal for you to bet at an offshore site, banking institutions cannot assist you in financing your activities.
Credit card companies, however, often have no issue with you using their services to fund your betting account. The same goes for numerous e-wallets, online payment processors, and cryptocurrencies. Of course, different banking methods each have their own strengths and weaknesses.
A credit card is excellent for fast deposits and provides an additional layer of consumer protections, but it cannot be used to accept withdrawals. Cryptocurrencies are anonymous and perfect for instant transactions but can be complicated to purchase and may fluctuate wildly in value.
Depositing and withdrawing directly from your debit card or checking account is the height of convenience, but only available in select regions, and requires you to share sensitive banking information with the website operators.
That’s why accepting a variety of banking methods is so essential to creating a top-tier political betting site. You need a range of options to find what works best for your specific situation.
Now, obviously, we don’t anticipate you needing to connect with the customer service team at any of our recommended political gambling sites. Still, it’s vital that the best online sportsbooks provide excellent support, just in case something unexpected happens or an error occurs. Even the top websites experience random issues from time to time.What matters most is that any problems you encounter or questions you may have are tended to in a timely and respectful manner. When executing our review process, we research the different ways to contact each political betting site’s customer support team and verify that they’re active and supervised by responsive help desk agents.
Most online sportsbooks have three methods of communication: email, telephone, and a live chat window. Our reviewers test each option and record how quickly they receive a response. We encourage you to do the same before depositing money. That way, you can feel assured that while you bet politics, there’s a responsive and helpful customer service team standing by, should you ever need them.
Can You Bet On The Presidential Election In The Us
For most people, the scariest thing about online political betting is transferring their hard-earned money to a website hosted offshore and/or in a foreign jurisdiction. The internet is littered with scammers and their fraudulent gambling websites, so the fear is warranted. That’s why vetting web-based sportsbooks for safety and security make up the foundation of our review process; there’s nothing more important.Any political betting website that qualifies for our lists of recommendations has been intensively researched and tested to ensure they’re legitimate, trustworthy businesses. Our reviewers also pay close attention to site security, so we can be certain that all of your data and financial information is protected with state-of-the-art encryption.
Another element of our website reviews is digging into each political betting site owner’s history and reputation in the online gaming industry. Just because a sportsbook is operating with integrity at the moment, doesn’t mean you can trust them long term. There have been oddsmakers who behaved themselves long enough to gain a regulatory license, only to go rogue after the fact.We prefer providers with a proven track record in the gaming industry. Our team analyzes the business dealings of the owners behind our recommendations and their previous domains to verify there’s no history of unethical behavior. They also study reviews and speak to top handicappers to be sure that any political betting website we share with our readers has an excellent reputation among the experts who know best.
Types of Political Betting Websites
Earlier, we mentioned how subjective it could be to determine which factors make one online sportsbook “better” than another. Once you have the fundamental criteria covered, finding the ideal political betting website is mostly a matter of personal preference. We believe that all of our recommendations are the top providers in the industry; some just have different specialties.
For example, you may be looking to bet politics right from your mobile phone. In that case, you’ll be interested in visiting our page at ranks to best mobile betting options.
Now, just because a betting website isn’t shared on that page doesn’t mean it won’t work on your phone or tablet. It may just not be compatible with as many different mobile devices as the other options that are listed. The online sportsbooks recommended on out real money page are safe and likely available on any mobile device you could have.
The same goes for fast payout betting sites. None of our recommendations offer slow payouts. That’s one of the variables we screen during our review process. The providers listed on the “fast payout” page specialize in completing monetary transactions swiftly.
Why Bet Politics Online
Political betting is still relatively new to the world of handicapping. Sure, it’s existed as a kind of novelty market in UK bookmaking shops for years, but it’s only been since 2016 that elections and politics have grown as legitimate competitions worth handicapping. With the world changing, polls and media personalities no longer exert enough influence to control the outcomes of races, meaning there’s now more value in betting politics than ever before.
For many of us, turning to online sportsbooks for our political betting is the only option, as land-based providers are barred from covering anything other than sports. Fortunately, in today’s interconnected world, that’s barely an inconvenience. As you’ve seen on this page, there are plenty of incredible top-notch political betting sites out there, just waiting for you to put your money where your mouth is!
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If you have been exposed to any sort of media recently, you know there is a presidential election coming up.
It’s the biggest, highest-stakes election this country hosts, as Florida Man awaits his Democratic challenger. We are in the thick of primary election season and f you are reading this site, you probably have an interest in the gambling space. Maybe you’re even wondering how to bet on the election.
Well, the short answer is you will not be placing any wagers at a legal US sportsbook — not now, and probably not in the near future.
Despite the inability to wager legally at a US sportsbook, an abundance of predictions and betting odds are out there. Elections might even surpass sports betting in the number of experts who will sell their picks.
Some historical perspective on election betting
Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf put together an excellent academic look at betting on presidential elections in 2004.
The article chronicles the long history of betting on U.S. presidential elections between 1868 and 1940. In one election cycle during that time, more than $165 million in circa-2002 dollars was wagered.
The betting was illegal, but would take place fairly openly according to the authors. It included wagering in the lobby of the New York Stock Exchange, where brokers booked election bets like they were buying and selling securities.
Little has changed: the betting is still almost entirely illegal and not especially hard to find.
More than just something to do
Betting on elections (and other things) can serve as a very useful predictive mechanism for experts and researchers.
The government’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has even hypothesized that the predictive value of certain types of betting markets may provide insights into uncertain future events.
The idea, simplified, is that collective opinions are more accurate than individual beliefs.
Recent history
In 2012, a high-profile incident involving the prediction market Intrade left a sour taste in the mouths of some regarding election wagering. The incident has been dubbed the “Romney Whale.”
What is believed to have happened: in the lead-up to the election results in 2012, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney were watching returns come in and most prognostications were showing support for Obama rising towards victory. Intrade’s market showed a sustained support for Romney, a contrast from virtually everywhere else.
Upon digging deeper, however, some believe it was a single individual, spending large sums of money to prop up Romney as the election came to a close.
The motivations of the Romney Whale remain unknown; perhaps they wanted people to continue voting. But even though Intrade’s market corrected itself, there was a stain left by the incident.
What was remembered was not that the market corrected, but that there was a suspected manipulation even if the reasoning is not clear.
Can I Still Bet On The Us Presidential Election
The exceptions in election betting
Despite the general reluctance to allow betting on elections in the United States, there are two big exceptions. If you a resident of the United States who would like to wager on the presidential election and you meet the requirements, you can wager on the election via the Iowa Electronic Markets or via the website PredictIt.
Both the Iowa Markets and PredictIt operate under so-called No Action letters issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC.) These letters effectively allow these two entities to operate these markets as educational endeavors without fear of the CFTC taking action against them.
These markets, which have a history of being highly accurate predictive mechanisms, are confined by the terms of the letters issued by the CFTC. They are the only two authorized public election prediction markets currently operating in the US.
The rejection from the CFTC
In 2012, the CFTC rejected an application from the North American Derivatives Exchange, or NADEX. NADEX wanted to offer the trading of political event contracts (effectively betting on political events) without being tied to educational objectives.
The Commodities Exchange Act allows the CFTC to reject the offering of certain commodities if one of six conditions is satisfied:
- Activity that is unlawful under any Federal or State law,
- Terrorism,
- Assassination,
- War,
- Gaming
- Other similar activity determined by the Commission, by rule of regulation, to be contrary to the public interest.
So what happened?
Can You Bet On The Us Presidential Election Polls
The CFTC went on to note that many states explicitly ban wagering on elections. That satisfies the first prong of the conditions laid out in the statute. The commission went farther, looking at whether the contracts were contrary to the public interest.
The CFTC rejected the usefulness of political event contracts (as they referred to them) as a hedging tool for traders. It went even farther in suggesting that they are prohibited under the condition regarding gaming as well.
What does this mean?
Does the CFTC’s rejection of NADEX’s application mean that presidential election wagering is always as a regulated commodity under the Commodities Exchange Act? Not necessarily.
But it is unlikely that any legal operator wants to risk running afoul of financial regulators, and jeopardize their core business in order to offer wagering on the presidential election.
The principal obstacle for wagering on elections in the United States rests at the state level, like with most things in gambling. While some argue that legalized wagering on elections may spur voter turnout, others see it as against the public interest.
Few willing to risk it
Nevada’s Gaming Control Board rejected a proposal in 2013. Even states adding sports wagering have steered clear of taking any steps towards legalizing wagering on elections.
Place A Bet On Election
For all the indications that election wagering might encourage voter turnout, it could conceivably have the opposite effect as well. If a candidate had long odds according to bookmakers, it may encourage voters to stay home.
Betting On The 2020 Election
Regardless of whether legalized election wagering would have a positive or negative effect on voter turnout, do not expect it to happen anytime soon in the US.